Archive for July, 2012

Tues July 31

31 July 2012 - 11:14 am UTC

GOLD and SILVER commencing downleg.

‘Eighty-eight percent of 58 economists surveyed said the Federal Open Market Committee will refrain from resuming purchases at a two-day meeting beginning today. Forty-eight percent say the FOMC will announce the buying at its Sept. 12-13 meeting, according to the July 25-27 poll.’
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-31/u-s-stock-index-futures-advance-as-federal-reserve-meets.html

SPX still overbought from last week and pullback expected this week unless QE3/ECB news suddenly causes short cover spike.

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Mon July 30

30 July 2012 - 4:27 pm UTC

SPX is overbought from last week and pullback expected this week
[unless QE3 is announced.]

Fri July 27

27 July 2012 - 11:08 am UTC

USDJPY daily chart is now bullish.

‘Euro slips on the CNBC headlines downplaying Draghi efforts …’

GOLD & SILVER daily charts are now bullish.

Draghi + LTRO / QE3 rumours = substantial [short covering & long only]
rally ahead.

More equity rally and USDX weakness…

Despite market chop and vacillation, it’s still anticipating QE3
imo.

GOLD & SILVER daily charts give bullish warning.

Thurs July 26

26 July 2012 - 5:22 am UTC

More EURUSD short covering expected and more USDX pullback so
stock bullish.

SPX and EURUSD bulls dominating.

EURUSD short covering rally confirmed and more USDX pullback ahead.

EURUSD reacts to ECB Draghi comment that ECB will do whatever it
takes to preserve euro…

EURUSD short covering rally expected.

EURUSD and SPX buy support returns.

Market consensus will only return once SPX weekly chart rolls over
(bearish) or QE3 is announced … (bullish)

Market dislocation returns and Euro bears threaten Wall St bulls.

EURSEK & EURGBP daily chart bullish warning continues.

More equity rally and USDX weakness expected today.

Wed July 25

25 July 2012 - 6:50 am UTC

SPX daily reverts to neutral (ie tracking sideways) but more rally
expected. Weekly chart remains bearish.

EURSEK & EURGBP daily chart gives bullish warning.

Yep, USDX retracement looking good so far (thus equity bullish)

Despite pesky EURUSD bears, USDX retracement expected.

SPX 4 hour H+S pattern looking invalid due to late session buying
yesterday.

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Tues July 24

24 July 2012 - 4:26 pm UTC

SPX 4 hour chart shows possible H+S pattern.

SPX bearish daily and weekly charts still dominate.

Mon July 23

23 July 2012 - 11:45 am UTC

As mentioned on Fri, SPX downleg continues.
SPX bearish weekly chart strengthens: an important development.

GOLD / SILVER daily and weekly charts give bearish warning.
An important development.

Bearish daily charts:
AUDCHF
AUDEUR
NZDEUR
AUDJPY
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
NZDGBP

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Thanks to reader Bryan for enclosed Bradley info.

Submitted 2012/07/01
The Bradley Model indicates a rally until late July with more distribution and then downside until late January 2013 then a rally until late June 2013. The top of the market this year was the exact Bradley Model turn date which is impressive. Of course the move in commodities Friday is something to note. I have read a lot of articles and data which points to 2013 as being a possible long-term market top (Fibonacci spirals and cycle theory) This is probably the most interesting piece I have read although hard to prove with any accuracy:
http://www.amanita.at/Interessantes/Gastartikel/detail.php?id=23056

Submitted 2012/07/22
Bradley model top is 07/28 and those have +/- 4 days accuracy so let’s see if it calls the top as well as it did for 03/16. Risk on sectors such as Basic Materials and Technology are lagging severely while money is funneling into Utilities. We have not yet seen a wash-out selling spree similar to previous years. The only wildcard is this being an election year so who knows what may be going on behind the scenes.

Sun July 22

22 July 2012 - 2:25 pm UTC

SPX weekly chart shows ongoing vacillation and lack of consensus.
The impending directional move is getting closer and it should be down.
I previously thought the overbought USDX signalled more equity rally this
year but looks like I’m wrong as bearish weekly & monthly SPX etc charts
are increasingly influential and dominate all else.
 

Sat July 21

21 July 2012 - 5:58 am UTC

Market intervention has only postponed the inevitable. Despite short &
medium term market vacillation – the following remains a constant :
● USDX monthly indicators [ie big picture] continue to warn of significant
long term USD upside. (thus EURUSD & AUDUSD etc bearish)
● SPX monthly indicators [ie big picture] continue to warn of significant
long term downside for equities which will be worse than 2008.
 
SP500 downleg expected to continue next week onwards.
Bearish SPX and EURUSD still dominating.
SPX 8 hour chart down leg strengthened further yesterday.

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Thurs July 19

19 July 2012 - 7:34 am UTC

NZDUSD 8 hour chart shows likely H+S contained within rising
wedge – very bearish patterns when confirmed.

SPX 8 hour chart down leg still commencing.

Bearish SPX and EURUSD dominating further now.

USDX daily chart retracement strengthens so bullish for EURUSD etc
but market conflict and dislocation continues as USDX is out of sync
with SPX.
SPX should eventually determine market direction .