Archive for February, 2012

Wed Feb 29

29 February 2012 - 1:57 am UTC

Barron’s cover as of Feb 13 2012 may be interpreted as a contrarian indicator.


SP500 etc still leading the pack with FX following behind.
So just need to wait for stock selling momentum to increase and then
FX signals will be more reliable. USDX bearish weekly warning should be
invalidated once equity sell off starts.
Better consensus as SP500 breaks down further now that LTRO is over for
USDJPY bearish intra signal no good as daily and weekly are too bullish.
Gold / Silver bearish daily chart warnings strengthen further and enable
overdue leg down.
NZDCAD bearish daily confirmed.

USDX weekly chart bearish warning returns. If confirmed, should be stock
bullish despite SP500 overextension.

Hopefully FX / S&P500 consensus will improve after LTRO release.

USDX / EURUSD / S&P500 ongoing vacillation continues.

USDJPY short 80.361
NZDUSD short 0.8401 [c 0.8418]


Tues Feb 28

28 February 2012 - 2:48 pm UTC

FTSE weekly chart shows price converging towards triangle apex.

Once again USD selling is met with equity selling from overextended charts
which results in more market conflict. This conflict will lessen when stock
sell pressure increases.

USDX weekly chart bearish warning returns.
Dollar selling supports stocks/gold/silver etc
FX / equity dislocation continues.

Critical Mass:
The Mispricing of Derivatives Risk And How the Financial World Ends

Renewed USD selling supports stocks yet again and distorts FX signals.
As mentioned, ongoing USD suppression just ensures the next equity crash
is severe.

NZDJPY daily bearish warning.
XAUJPY daily bearish warning.
AUDJPY daily bearish warning.

NZDUSD short 0.8401
USDJPY short 80.637 [c 80.620]

Mon Feb 27

27 February 2012 - 6:33 pm UTC

USDX bullish warning on daily chart returns.

Bearish SP500/DOW/NASDAQ daily chart still breaking down and leading
the pack with other markets following behind. Risk of waterfall sell off

Daily uptrends continue:

Daily bullish warning:

Daily downtrends starting:

USDJPY short 80.637
NZDEUR short 0.6223 [c 0.6210]
NZDUSD short 0.8386 [c 0.8396]

Fri Feb 24

24 February 2012 - 1:30 pm UTC

SP500 bears leading the pack again, and other markets following behind.

Gold and Silver intra day reverts to bearish – following stocks as usual.

GBPAUD daily bullish warning strengthens.

EURAUD / EURNZD daily uptrends strengthen and more upside expected.

GBPAUD daily chart bullish warning returns.

More fluctuation reflecting FX and equity dislocation and stock
bearish atm.

USDX bearish weekly chart now dominating which is stock bulish.

USDX monthly bullish warnings strengthen – which influences smaller time
frames and evident atm.

SP500 chart overextension vs USDX bearish weekly chart warning continues
to fluctuate with USDX weakness dominating again. USDX weakness is stock

EURNZD and EURAUD intra bearish warning returns but daily is still bullish.

NZDEUR short 0.6223
NZDUSD short 0.8386
AUDUSD long 1.0736 [c 1.0735]
AUDUSD short 1.0723 [c 1.0731]

Thurs Feb 23

23 February 2012 - 9:40 pm UTC

SP500 bears are still leading the pack with other markets following behind.

USDX weekly bearish warning returns yet again which may support
stocks further. May depend on Greece perhaps ?

Too many FX mixed signals atm.

NZDUSD short
EURNZD short 1.5870 [c 1.5901]

Wed Feb 22

22 February 2012 - 3:15 am UTC

DOW weekly chart with updated rising wedge scenario and large
megaphone formation.


SP500/DOW/NASDAQ overextended charts continue to break down with risk of
waterfall sell off.

Bullish daily charts:

EURAUD and EURNZD give intra bearish warning. Daily remains bullish.

SP500/DOW/NASDAQ overextended charts continue to break down with risk of
waterfall sell off.

AUDCAD daily leg down continues.
NZDUSD daily megaphone continues.

EURNZD short 1.5870

Tues Feb 21

21 February 2012 - 12:58 pm UTC

SP500 etc still leads the pack with other markets following.
SP500 etc overextended daily and weekly charts will remain until
they retrace. Due to their protracted overextension this overdue
retracement may result in a waterfall sell off. This Wile E. Coyote
scenario has been delayed longer than expected but it will happen
eventually. Greek hopium, QE etc can delay but can never prevent.
USDX strength will return when equities sell off.

SP500/DOW/NASDAQ overextended charts still dominate – suggesting sell off
this week or next.

AUDCAD daily starting leg down.

Reminder – NZDUSD daily still shows megaphone (ie bearish)

SP500/DOW/NASDAQ overextended daily charts dominating again with risk
of waterfall sell off.

GBPAUD / EURAUD daily uptrend confirmed and further upside expected.

USDX intra reverts to bullish chop.

EURAUD bullish daily chart strengthens
EURCAD bullish daily continues
GBPAUD bullish daily continues
EURSGD bullish daily warning

AUDCAD short 1.0643
GBPAUD long 1.4783 [1.4785]
EURAUD short 1.2360 [c 1.2364]
EURAUD long 1.2258 [c 1.2362]
CADJPY short 80.054 [c 80.171]

Mon Feb 20

20 February 2012 - 1:19 am UTC

SP500 weekly chart as of Fri Feb 17

Despite mixed signals, FX markets today suggest stock bearish.

Bearish influence from overextended SP500/DOW/NASDAQ remains.

Gold and Silver not participating in bounce today…

Greek hopium stockbulls battle it out with overextended SP500/DOW/NASDAQ.

Additional Greek hopium results in USDX weekly chart giving bearish warnings
again. Naturally this will be market significant for stocks etc and aggressive
short covering spikes may result – maybe up through 1370 ?

NZDUSD diamond pattern from last week confirmed and now morphs into
megaphone wedge.

USDJPY overbought intra day gives bearish warning.

Euro hopium factor aside, SP500 1,363 should be the top.
Europe/Greece remains an unknown variable.

CADJPY short 80.054
EURUSD long 1.3230 [c 1.3261]
USDJPY short 79.501 [c 79.550]
GBPAUD long 1.4743 [c 1.4745]
EURAUD long 1.2258

AAPL parabolic irrational exuberance #2

18 February 2012 - 11:55 pm UTC

AAPL daily, weekly and monthly charts are grossly overextended.
Vertical moves like this are unsustainable.
The inevitable reversal should be spectacular.
This is not a trade recommendation.
[disclosure: no position held]
AAPL monthly chart as of Feb 5 and originally posted Feb 10

Fri Feb 17

17 February 2012 - 11:29 am UTC

EURAUD and GBPAUD bullish daily chart warning strengthens.

Gold and Silver bias remains bearish and overextended SP500 still risks
eventual waterfall sell off.

Gold / Silver / SP500 bearish bias strengthens but no USDX bullish reversal
yet, due to Greece I presume.

EURAUD / GBPAUD daily bullish warning strengthens and further upside
expected [unless we get more Greece hopium which substantially alters
market dynamics]

Gold and Silver intra day bias reverts to bearish like SP500.

Potential rally looks cancelled thanks to overextended SP500 etc.

Overextended SP500 etc is impeding potential Greece Hopium Rally …

GBPNZD daily chart bullish warning.

EURAUD / GBPAUD daily chart bullish warning returns.

Potential Greece Hopium Rally Awaits ?

More USD selling detected ~ Greece hopium returns.

After all the protracted basing, USDJPY daily and weekly uptrend continues
to warn of significant upside ahead.

More conflicted price action yesterday with overextended SP500/DOW/NASDAQ
chart break down opposed by Greece hopium and short covering as revealed
by aggressively bullish candles.

GBPAUD long 1.4743
EURAUD long 1.2258
USDSGD short 1.2580 [c 1.2562]
USDJPY short 79.021 [c 79.062]
NZDUSD short 0.8365 [c 0.8370]