Archive for December, 2011

Fri Dec 30

30 December 2011 - 2:57 pm UTC

Yep, window dressing appears to be ending…
Equity index daily charts all suggest a big move ahead.
When equity window dressing ends the downtrend can resume.

USD selling returns yet again which supports stocks.
SP500 daily chart choppy bearish warning continues.
SP500 fluctuating daily trend choppy bearish warning returns, thanks
to european stock bears. That bullish spike looks unlikely again.
Unfortunately Europe bears don’t agree atm. This ongoing market dislocation
gets worse and worse which provides another warning of the next crash.
SP500 fluctuating daily trend gives bullish warning and more upside likely.
Previously mentioned possible bullish spike on SP500 weekly chart continues.
See Tues Dec 27 chart.

AUDGBP short 0.6603
AUDGBP short 0.6575 [c 0.6595]
USDPLN long 3.4160 [c 3.4518]
NZDUSD long 0.7730 [c 0.7727]
XAUUSD long 1556.35 [1560.56]


Thurs Dec 29

29 December 2011 - 10:53 am UTC

Equity selling returns and mixed signals and no consensus again.

That bullish spike on SP500 weekly looks likely again.
(see chart below)

USDX selling detected yet again which supports stocks.
Maybe we will get that SP500 bullish spike.

Gold and Silver daily and weekly charts are bearish and as mentioned
previously significant downside expected with equities during 2012.

SP500 choppy daily chart bearish warning returns and opposite for USDX.

AUDJPY long 78.618
AUDJPY long 78.446 [c 78.590]
USDPLN long 3.4021 [c 3.4467]
GBPUSD long 1.5458 [c 1.5459]
GBPUSD long 1.5455 [c 1.5454]
AUDUSD long 1.0084 [c 1.0093]
USDCAD long 1.0233 [c 1.0251]

Wed Dec 28

28 December 2011 - 12:25 pm UTC

Due to serious SP500 technical damage today, a bullish spike looks unlikely now.

Reminder SP500 weekly chart shows possible bullish spike ahead (chart below)

Reminder that SP500 monthly chart continues to give bearish warnings and USDX
monthly chart continues to give bullish warnings. This big picture outlook will not
change. [USDX time frame modified to avoid confusion]

USDCAD long 1.0233
USDCAD long 1.0235 [c 1.0242]
USDCAD long 1.0145 [c 1.0230]
AUDUSD long 1.0163 [c 1.0191]
EURSGD long 1.6944 [c 1.6948]
CADJPY short 76.303 [c 76.231]
EURSGD long 1.6936 [1.6960]

Tues Dec 27

27 December 2011 - 7:07 pm UTC

SP500 weekly chart shows possible bullish spike ahead.
Ongoing megaphone wedge ensures eventual crash.

USDX daily chart gives bearish warning so should be stock bullish.

EURSGD long 1.6936
GBPAUD long 1.5415 [c 1.5419]
GBPUSD short 1.5651 [c 1.5636]

Fri Dec 23

23 December 2011 - 4:38 pm UTC

SP500 retracement is needed.

GBPUSD short 1.5651
NZDUSD short 0.7743 [c 0.7734]
USDPLN long 3.3931 [c 3.3885]
CADJPY long 76.235 [c 76.576]

Thurs Dec 22

22 December 2011 - 11:59 am UTC

Stock bulls dominate atm.
When the equity window dressing ceases the downtrend can resume.
SP500 sellers arrive too so more chop.
SP500 buy support returns.

CADJPY long 76.235
USDCHF long 0.9373 [c 0.9367]
AUDJPY long 78.741 [c 79.001]
CADJPY long 75.944 [c 76.204]
XAUUSD short 1610.79 [c 1606.87]
AUDUSD long 1.0083 [c 1.0080]
GBPAUD long 1.5556 [c 1.5550]
XAUUSD short 1612.79 [c 1609.25]

Wed Dec 21

21 December 2011 - 11:39 am UTC

SP500 daily chart shows price action converging.

I still expect Gold and Silver to follow stocks down.
Thought we would get more rally before Xmas but it looks finished now.
SP500 intra day reverts to bearish and sellers are back in control.
[this is due to the influence of bearish larger time frames which won’t change]
SP500 intra day reverts to neutral/bearish.
SP500 intra day reverts to neutral after the latest spike.

GBPAUD long 1.5556
XAUUSD short 1612.79
XAUUSD short 1613.84 [c 1613.95]
NZDUSD short 0.7748 [c 0.7680]
AUDGBP long 0.6458 [c 0.6471]
AUDUSD long 0.9941 [c 1.0161]

Tues Dec 20

20 December 2011 - 2:37 am UTC

SP500 weekly chart.
More SP500 upleg and USDX weakness expected this week.
SP500 buyers return.

AUDUSD long 0.9941

Mon Dec 19

19 December 2011 - 3:08 pm UTC

Bullish USDX weekly chart is increasingly dominant so stock bearish.
USD weakness so stock bullish atm.

NZDUSD long 0.7589 [c 0.7586]

Fri Dec 16

16 December 2011 - 8:31 am UTC

Reminder that SP500 monthly chart remains bearish and USDX weekly
remains bullish so it’s only a matter of time until market makes its move.

Xmas Rally Squad really want it. Another SP500 short covering
spike next week looks likely.

SP500 intra bias now reverts to bullish chop.
Stock Bears return.
SP500 daily trend reverts to neutral chop.
SP500 intra reverts to bearish chop.
SP500 intra reverts to neutral chop.

Xmas Rally Squad buying continues. SP500 intra day trend remains bullish
and opposite for USDX.

SP500 intra day still bullish and opposite for USDX so more equity upside

SP500 daily trend remains neutral.

Reminder that SP500 monthly chart remains bearish and USDX weekly
remains bullish so it’s only a matter of time until the market makes its move.

USDCHF long 0.9383 cancel
XAGUSD short 29.460 [c 29.667]
NZDUSD long 0.7621 [c 0.7629]
NZDUSD long 0.7540 [c 0.7612]
USDCHF short 0.9448 [c 0.9390]
USDSEK short 7.0041 [c 6.9231]