Archive for September, 2011

Fri 30 Sept

30 September 2011 - 1:31 pm UTC

GBPNZD GBPCAD GBPAUD – good uptrends developing.

Trending well atm: GBPCAD GBPNZD EURNZD USDCAD GBPAUD USDSGD USDCZK

Due to USDX daily and weekly trend strength, retracements
are minimal.

XAGUSD short 29.880 [c 29.871]
USDSGD long 1.3062
USDCAD long 1.0451
GBPCAD long 1.6294
USDSGD long 1.3023 [c 1.3025]
EURCAD short 1.4058 [c 1.3983]
EURAUD short 1.3849 [c 1.3817]
USDSGD long 1.3005 [c 1.3021]
GBPAUD long 1.5991 [c 1.6032]
USDSGD long 1.2986 [c 1.2970]
USDCAD long 1.0401 [c 1.0431]
EURNZD short 1.7664 [c 1.7695]
EURUSD long 1.3545 [c 1.3539]

Advertisements

Thurs 29 Sept

29 September 2011 - 12:58 pm UTC

Directional atm: GBPJPY / GBPCAD / EURNZD / GBPNZD

More dollar and (bearish) equity dislocation.

GBPJPY seems to be developing uptrend on daily chart.

More dollar retracement (much needed) and intra trend now choppy
bearish. Opposite for EURJPY etc.

SP500 intra trend reverts to neutral/bullish chop in addition to
some USDX weakness.

USDSGD long 1.2872 [c 1.2965]

Wed 28 Sept

28 September 2011 - 11:25 am UTC


NASDAQ updated 8 hour chart. (bearish)
 
SP500 intra trend changes from bearish/neutral to bearish.

USDX (aka US dollar) weekly chart has been bullish for some time
and my indicators continue to warn of increasing strength.

Stock sellers dominating again so USD retracement may be ending.

After being away from desk I now see the stock bears returned 8 hrs
ago. SP500 intra day trend reverts to bearish / neutral.

USDSGD long 1.2872
USDSGD short 1.2819 [c 1.2840]

Tues 27 Sept

27 September 2011 - 12:19 pm UTC

We get a good dollar pullback at last. SP500 intra reverts to
bullish and daily is now neutral.

Dollar retracement should support stocks.

Dollar wants to sell off…

SP500 intra day fluctuating again. Daily and weekly remain
bearish.

USDSGD short 1.2819
AUDUSD short 0.9915 [c 0.9932]
NZDUSD long 0.7854 [c 0.7877]
NZDUSD short 0.7855 cancel
XAGAUD short 33.160 [c 33.191]
AUDEUR long 0.7286 [c 0.7305]
GBPAUD short 1.5899 [c 1.5811]
XAGAUD long 30.601 [c 31.724]

Mon 26 Sept

26 September 2011 - 12:05 pm UTC

SP500 intra day reverts to bullish chop and daily H+S looks
interesting.

Buyers and sellers battle continues and SP500 intra reverts to
bearish chop.

Yep, back to the basing scenario from last week for a stock bounce
and SP500 intra day trend reverts to choppy bullish.

Equity buy support returns, resulting in more intra day sideways chop.

S&P500 bearish daily chart strengthens. USD bullish daily chart
strengthens.

As mentioned since July and August – Gold/Silver is overextended and
significant correction expected. Daily chart downtrend strengthens.
GOLD daily chart 15 July 2011

GBPAUD short 1.5899
XAGAUD long 30.601
GBPNZD short 2.0201 [c 2.0193]
USDCAD long 1.0308 [c 1.0342]
USDCAD short 1.0348 [c 1.0300]
USDSGD long 1.3017 [c 1.3069]
EURAUD long 1.3789 [ 1.3864]
GBPNZD long 1.9970 cancel
USDPLN short 3.2886 [c 3.2521]

Fri 23 Sept

23 September 2011 - 4:41 pm UTC

Originally posted Feb 16, 2011.
“When DOW/S&P500 correction gathers momentum I expect:
UP ~ USD, various USDXXX currencies, VIX Index
DOWN ~ EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GOLD/SILVER, Base metals like
COPPER etc, CRUDE OIL”

 
Equity [counter trend] bounce scenario looks possible and USDX is
very overbought after yesterday.
 
As mentioned since August, Gold/Silver is overextended and
significant correction expected. Daily chart downtrend strengthens.
GOLD daily chart 15 July 2011
 
AUDEUR long 0.7253 [c 0.7260]
USDPLN short 3.2886
USDCAD short 1.0256 [c 1.0298]
EURHUF short 289.86 [c 291.75]

Thurs 22 Sept

22 September 2011 - 11:33 am UTC

Upside continues and more expected:
USDX
EURCAD
EURAUD
GBPAUD
USDCAD
GBPCAD
USDSGD etc

SP500 daily reverts to bearish. Weekly bearish chart continues and
and this will not change.

My long term indicators have continued to warn of USD strength and
these signals have increased since 2009. As mentioned overdue dollar
rally should be substantial.

Also mentioned previously, COPPER daily chart ignored current rally
and warned of inevitable resumption of equity downtrend.

NZDUSD short 0.8223 [c 0.7819]
SP500 short 1208.75 [c 1129.00]

Wed 21 Sept

21 September 2011 - 11:47 am UTC

SP500 AUDUSD NZDUSD intra day revert to bearish. Rising wedge
chart pattern still applies (ie equities resume downtrend) USD
rally continues and as mentioned significant upside expected.

EURUSD EURJPY daily chart possible H/S continues.

SP500 AUDUSD NZDUSD fluctuating intra day reverts to bearish
/neutral.

Market lack of consensus continues and AUDUSD NZDUSD intra day is
now neutral/bullish.

NZDUSD short 0.8223
AUDEUR long 0.7495 [c 0.7499]
EURAUD long 0.7491 [c 0.7498]
AUDUSD short 1.0284 [c 1.0278]

Tues Sept 20

20 September 2011 - 1:41 pm UTC

S&P500 daily chart above shows possible rising wedge. Weekly chart
remains bearish.
 
 

SP500 intra reverts to bearish.

GBPCAD / GBPAUD / EURAUD / USDSGD ~ good upside expected.

EURUSD EURJPY daily charts both show possible H+S.

COPPER daily chart has ignored current rally and thus warns of
inevitable resumption of equity downtrend.

SP500 intra reverts to bearish chop.

GBPCAD bullish warning continues and 8 hour bullish so further
upside expected.

SP500 intra reverts to neutral chop. Weekly is bearish and will
eventually have the final word.

Currencies being dragged upwards by bullish SP500.

SP500 intra chart reverts to bullish again …

Serious market dislocation again today but SP500 sellers have
appeared again.

GBPCAD gives stronger bullish warning and 8 hr has gone bullish so
further upside expected.

GBPCAD and EURCAD revert to sideways.

NZDUSD suggesting a bullish move – nope.

EURCAD GBPCAD bullish warnings return.

USD daily now gives bearish warning and SP500 daily now gives bullish
warning. So the sideways chop continues.

USD sell pressure is strong today.

EURUSD weekly chart remains bearish and daily may be forming head
and shoulders pattern (ie bearish)

AUDUSD short 1.0284
NZDUSD long 0.8245 [c 0.8248]
AUDUSD short 1.0268 [1.0270]
EURJPY long 105.013 [c 104.861]
EURJPY long 104.839 [c 104.881]
EURCAD long 1.3559 [c 1.3600]
AUDJPY long 78.434 [c 78.654]
EURJPY short 104.587 [c 104.613]
EURUSD long 1.3612 [c 1.3674]
USDPLN short 3.1875 [c 3.2059]

Mon Sept 19

19 September 2011 - 6:32 pm UTC

Originally posted Feb 16, 2011.
“When DOW/S&P500 correction gathers momentum I expect:
UP ~ USD, various USDXXX currencies, VIX Index
DOWN ~ EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GOLD/SILVER, Base metals like
COPPER etc, CRUDE OIL”

Good trends atm: EURAUD / USDSGD / GBPCAD (bullish)

Rising wedge scenario still applies (ie equities resume downtrend)
USD rally continues and as mentioned, significant upside expected.

USDPLN short 3.1875
EURAUD long 1.3392 cancelled
GBPCAD long 1.5533 cancelled
EURAUD long 1.3350 [c 1.3406]
SP500 short 1208.75
NZDUSD short 0.8311 [c 0.8210]