Archive for August, 2011

Wed Aug 31

31 August 2011 - 1:30 pm UTC

The sideways chop and short covering spikes is caused by recurring
buy support conflicting with significant sell pressure.

As mentioned, the big picture remains bearish and this will ALWAYS
exert the most influence. The only thing GUARANTEED is that the
bearish medium/long term cycle will have the upper hand.

The recurring buy support, panic buying and short covering results in
SP500 being very overbought again and likely this will cause another
waterfall sell off.

GOLD bias is choppy neutral (ie no consensus)

GBPCAD short 1.5899

USDCAD long 0.9736 [c 0.9770]

USDSGD long 1.2025 [c 1.2035]

SP500 Emini short 1214.25

NZDUSD short 0.8535

AUDUSD short 1.0679 [c 1.0680]

SP500 futs intra day chart now gives bearish warning so maybe
yesterdays rally is ending.

AUDGBP short 0.6555 [c 0.6554]

GOLD bias is now neutral.

XAUUSD long 1825.95 [c 1835.45]

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Tues Aug 30

30 August 2011 - 3:07 pm UTC

SP500 intra day trend now bullish. Daily now neutral (ie sideways)
and weekly remains bearish.

Recurring equity buy support strengthens further so more
short covering rallies this week probable. See SP500 chart below.

GOLD bullish bias strengthens along with equity rally.

XAUUSD long 1825.95

EURUSD short 1.4423 [c 1.4433]

AUDUSD short 1.0673 cancel

XAUUSD long 1824.45 [c 1827.46]

NZDUSD short 0.8523 [c 0.8528]

Big selling detected – the battle continues.
Substantial SP500 buy support returns.

XAUUSD short 1790.75 [c 1796.34]

GOLD and SILVER significant correction is still expected.

SP500 intra day chart gives bearish warning after latest counter
trend short covering rally. Daily and weekly charts remain bearish.

SP500 EMINI short 1204.50 [c 1201.00]
EURGBP short 0.8846 [c 0.8840]
XAUUSD short 1,820.07 [c 1797.20]

Mon Aug 29

29 August 2011 - 6:10 pm UTC

Indecisive USDJPY reverts to choppy basing on daily chart.

EURGBP short 0.8846

After the protracted basing, USDCHF bullish outlook continues and
further upside expected.

XAUUSD short 1,820.07

AUDUSD short 1.0617 [c 1.0629]

As suggested on Friday, we got some USD selling / EURUSD support
today but it’s weakened for now. SP500 intra day trend is currently
sideways. Daily and weekly trends remain bearish.

XAUUSD short 1,817.19 [c 1819.06]
AUDCAD short 1.0407 [c 1.0319]

Sat Aug 27

27 August 2011 - 1:10 am UTC

 

S&P500 weekly chart shows volatile consolidation. If USD selling
continues next week then next resistance level may be breached
resulting in another short covering rally. Daily and weekly trends
remain bearish.

Fri Aug 26

26 August 2011 - 1:42 pm UTC

Substantial USD sell pressure and EURUSD buy support detected
maybe in anticipation of ECB tomorrow ? This recurring dollar
selling should be bullish for stocks. SP500 index last 11,209

AUDCAD short 1.0407

AUDUSD short 1.0583 [c 1.0586]

AUDJPY daily chart gives bullish warning.

USDJPY long 76.646 [c 76.620]

USDJPY short 76.941  [c 76.601]

As mentioned, the equity big picture remains bearish and this
will ALWAYS exert the most influence.

Equity selling pressure increases.

AUDJPY short 80.395 cancelled

USDJPY ‘uptrend on daily chart’  looks umm… cancelled

GOLD and SILVER intra day revert to bullish.

No short term market consensus atm. Bigger picture remains
bearish of course and this will ALWAYS exert the most influence.

EURJPY short 111.095 [c 110.512]

GOLD and SILVER intra day goes bearish/neutral.

More USD selling detected. FTSE buying support noted.

AUDUSD long 1.0496  [c 1.0486]

EURUSD long 1.4440 [c 1.4402]

GOLD and SILVER intra day bullish signal continues despite
neutral/bearish daily chart.

Europe/UK stocks are ignoring USD selling and no consensus yet
again. Choppy market dislocation.

XAUUSD long 1777.50 [c 1787.71]

EURUSD long 1.4434 [c 1.4433]

NZDUSD long 0.8317 [c 0.8322]

USD selling pressure continues which will support stocks and EURUSD
AUDUSD etc.

AUDUSD long 1.0487 [c 1.0488]

GBPUSD long 1.6319 [c 1.6313]

USD selling returns which should be equity bullish. Markets remain
choppy.

GBPUSD long 1.6318 [c 1.6315]
XAUUSD long 1,767.74  [c 1778.90]
AUDUSD short 1.0441  [c 1.0480]

Thurs Aug 25

25 August 2011 - 11:39 am UTC

XAUUSD long 1,767.74

SP500/DOW/NASDAQ  intra day cycle maintains bearish bias.

OMG it seems USDJPY has finally established an uptrend on daily
chart – fell asleep waiting…

AUDUSD short 1.0441

AUDUSD short 1.0445 [c 1.0448]

SP500/DOW/NASDAQ vacillating intra day cycle maintains bearish bias.

XAUAUD long 1665.64 [c 1682.50]

XAUUSD short 1735.48 cancelled

Jackson Hole vacillating intra day cycle reverts to bearish
after spike.

XAUUSD long 1734.64 [c 1734.15]

Jackson Hole vacillating intra day cycle reverts to neutral / bearish
after spike.

XAUUSD short 1727.21 [c 1730.14]

USDCHF long 0.7953 [c 0.7956]

XAUUSD long 1728.19 [c 1733.00]

Jackson Hole vacillating intra day cycle reverts to bullish with risk of
short covering spike.

USDJPY protracted choppy basing on daily chart continues.

EURJPY long 111.162 [c 111.393]

GOLD (overdue) retracement continues.

Jackson Hole counter trend bounce reverts to bearish again (like
the bigger picture)

XAGUSD short 39.416 [c 39.392]

XAUUSD short 1744.06 [c 1720.83]

EURJPY daily chart gives bullish warning.

USDCHF and EURCHF basing on daily chart continues and more upside
expected.

XAUUSD short 1755.08 [c 1743.13]

XAUUSD long 1757.55 [c 1760.06]

Wed Aug 24

24 August 2011 - 1:19 pm UTC

Jackson Hole counter trend bounce reverts to bullish again.
It keeps fluctuating as it’s a battle between a bullish shorter
term cycle intersecting with bearish medium/longer term cycle.
The only thing guaranteed is that the bearish medium/long term
cycle will have the upper hand.

XAUUSD long 1757.55

USDJPY protracted choppy basing on daily chart continues…

USDCHF long 0.7944 [ c 0.7948]

AUDJPY short 80.501 [c 80.554]

XAUUSD short 1781.09 [c 1758.81]

AUDJPY short 80.411 [c 80.500]

EURCHF long 1.1439 [c 1.1442]

USDCHF etc bullish basing continues.

Jackson Hole counter trend bounce reverts to bearish again.
It keeps fluctuating as it’s a battle between a bullish shorter
term cycle intersecting with bearish medium/longer term cycle.
The only thing guaranteed is that the bearish medium/long term
cycle will have the upper hand.

GOLD retracement begins…

Jackson Hole equity counter trend bounce reverts to bullish and
opposite for USD.

Don’t forget GOLD is very overextended and the overdue retracement
should be significant.

XAUUSD short 1838.75 [ c 1776.87]

EURAUD long 1.3778 [c 1.3788]

GBPCAD long 1.6319 [c 1.6311]

NZDUSD long 0.8283 [c 0.8281]

Jackson Hole counter trend bounce reverts to indecisive with
bullish bias.

GBPAUD long 1.5754 cancelled

Jackson Hole counter trend bounce is looking tired.
SP500 futs last 1,146.50

AUDJPY short 80.350 [c 80.262]
NZDUSD short 0.8277 [ c 0.8283]
XAUUSD short 1857.29 [c 1848.71]
NZDCHF long 0.6601  [c 0.6586]

Tues Aug 23

23 August 2011 - 12:00 pm UTC

Jackson Hole bounce continues but it’s a counter trend rally as
larger equity trends remain bearish and a USD rally lies ahead.

Don’t forget GOLD is extremely overextended and the overdue
retracement should be significant.

NZDCHF long 0.6601

XAUUSD short 1857.29

XAGUSD short 42.872 [c 43.018]

NZDUSD long 0.8320 [c 0.8331]

USD sell and S&P500 buy continues.

NZDUSD long 0.8281 [c 0.8317]

GBPAUD long 1.5816  [c 1.5772]

USD selling and equity buy support returns – anticipating Jackson
Hole.

Mon Aug 22

22 August 2011 - 2:07 pm UTC

Equity selling returns…

GBPAUD long 1.5816
USDCHF long 0.7899 [c 0.7896]
NZDCHF long 0.6520 [c 0.6514]
USDCHF long 0.7901 [c .7900]
NZDUSD long 0.8259 [c 0.8252]
USDCAD short 0.9894 [c 0.9904]

Substantial USD selling and equity buy support detected
– anticipating Jackson Hole perhaps.

GBPNZD long 2.0125  [c 2.0146]

NZDUSD short 0.8227  [c 0.8181]

Fri Aug 19

19 August 2011 - 8:00 pm UTC

As mentioned on StockTwits, SP500/DOW/NASDAQ 2 or 4 hr chart
bearish formation (triangle) is looking ready for a move.

NZDUSD short 0.8227

AUDUSD short 1.0431 [c 1.0438]

End of  short covering and more sellers means a bearish reversal
could happen anytime for the stock bounce.

AUDUSD long 1.0433 [c 1.0434]

SP500 buy support and USD selling detected. SP500 4 hour chart may
be forming a RH shoulder for a H+S which explains the bounce I’m
expecting to make the possible RH shoulder. Futs last 1,126.

NZDUSD long 0.8231 [c 0.8269]