Archive for July, 2011

Sun July 31

31 July 2011 - 12:06 pm UTC

Another explanation of the Wile E Coyote correction for certain readers who judging by their colourful comments did not read it the first time: I’m referring to the price action on the S&P500 chart at top of blog. It’s been suspended in the air for many months just waiting for gravity to take hold …

Sat July 30

30 July 2011 - 1:00 am UTC

AUDUSD daily with updated megaphone wedge shows the final top in my opinion.  As mentioned previously a big move down is expected.

Fri July 29

29 July 2011 - 8:18 pm UTC

USDCAD and EURSEK basing strengthens.

Originally posted Feb 16, 2011
When DOW/S&P500 correction gathers momentum I expect:
UP ~ USD, various USDXXX currencies, VIX Index

USDCAD long 0.9539
AUDUSD long 1.0992 [c 1.0993]
AUDUSD long 1.0959 [c 1.0991]
USDCAD long 0.9558 [c 0.9570]
AUDJPY short 85.348 [c 84.468]
AUDUSD short 1.1014 [c 1.0965]

Thurs July 28

28 July 2011 - 8:56 am UTC

The substantial equity sell off is getting close.

XAUUSD short 1614.48 [c 1613.43]
AUDUSD short 1.1014
AUDUSD short 1.1015 [c 1.1019]
XAUUSD short 1612.76 [c 1612.02]
Gold and Silver bearish warning returns.
AUDUSD short 1.1020 [c 1.1017]
XAUUSD short 1608.89 [c 1606.33]

Key equity index daily and weekly chart bearish warnings strengthen.

My weekly and monthly indicators indicators continue to warn of
significant USD upside and opposite for EURUSD. Bring on the overdue
dollar rally…

Thanks to ao for useful link (btw your email addy bounces)

EURUSD short 1.4478 [c 1.4295]

Wed July 27

27 July 2011 - 7:04 pm UTC

Have been away again.
EURUSD short 1.4478
EURUSD short 1.4385 [c 1.4426]

Fri July 22

22 July 2011 - 11:28 am UTC

EURUSD short 1.4385

Gold and Silver sideways again.

Gold and Silver bearish warning strengthens.

Equities and EURUSD bounced yesterday as suggested.
As seen in sticky chart above – monthly chart has been tracking sideways this year. This distribution and topping signifies that the big picture uptrend is ending and a significant downtrend will follow.

XAUEUR short 1116.84 [c 1106.47]

Thurs July 21

21 July 2011 - 1:05 pm UTC

XAUUSD daily with updated megaphone pattern.

XAUEUR short 1116.84

EURUSD buyers return.

XAUUSD short 1598.87 [c 1598.85]

Gold + Silver give bearish warning.

Extremely oversold USDCHF continues choppy basing and overdue rally still expected.

Short term mixed signals and lack of consensus return.
The S&P500 long term megaphone top and bearish EURUSD big picture will however provide much needed consensus…

Been away from desk for a few days. Ongoing equity buy support and USD sell pressure indicates that rally may happen after all. DOW futs 12,536

XAGUSD short 40.252 [c 39.821]

Mon July 18

18 July 2011 - 3:09 pm UTC

Clarification of the Wile E Coyote correction for readers who asked:
I’m referring to the price action on the sticky S&P500 chart at top
of blog. It’s been suspended in the air for many months just waiting
for gravity to take hold…

XAGUSD short 40.252

USDCAD long 0.9606 [c 0.9605]

DOW/S&P500 still not bullish.
USDCAD long 0.9588 [c 0.9609]

Very sideways atm but equity rally looking unlikely now.
DOW futs last 12,380 [Will be away from my desk for a while]

Despite the recurring DOW/S&P500 buy support, sellers keep
appearing and bearish daily and weekly charts slowly gain strength.
Signals are now mixed and the rally I was expecting is looking

Unfortunately the delayed / slowed down correction that started
months ago will probably result in a sudden sell off similar to
or worse than 2008.

XAGUSD long 38.650 [c 39.873]

Fri July 15

15 July 2011 - 10:19 am UTC

Gold [XAUUSD] daily chart above shows big move ahead.


Recurring substantial S&P500 buy support results in my
indicators now suggesting a significant equity rally is possible.
DOW cash index last 12,443

Gold and Silver bullish daily chart strengthens.

USDCAD short 0.9541 [c 0.9541]

XAGUSD long 38.650

XAGUSD long 38.252 [38.671]

[S&P500 buy support returns thus dragging up gold and silver]

USDCHF is now EXTREMELY oversold.
USDCHF long 0.8163 [c 0.8157]

Gold and Silver gives short warning. Daily is bullish but very
overbought, weekly is neutral.

XAGUSD short 38.170 [c 38.151]
USDSEK long 6.5116 [c 6.5215]
EURSEK long 9.2086 [c 9.2139]
XAGUSD short 38.626 [c 38.492]
USDCAD long 0.9590 [c 0.9593]
EURSEK long 9.2048 [c 9.1976]

Thurs July 14

14 July 2011 - 11:55 am UTC

US Dollar forecast shown in chart above.

USDCAD long 0.9590

EURSEK long 9.2048

I expect stock sell off to drag down precious metals.

Current fluctuating market chop indicates one thing. (see S&P500 chart at top of page for more info)

SP500 selling pressure strengthens despite recurring buy support.

XAGUSD short 38.872

EURUSD long 1.4214 [c 1.4228]

EURSEK long 9.1969 [c 9.1948]

XAGAUD long 36.051 [c 36.358]

EURUSD long 1.4209 [c 1.4216]

XAUEUR short 1114.63 [c 1114.99]

XAGAUD and XAGUSD basing (ie bullish) on daily chart continues.

XAGAUD long 35.531 [c 35.983]

FX short squeeze now finished as DOW/SP500 selling resumes ?

AUDUSD short 1.0740 [c 1.0743]
GBPUSD short 1.6142 [c 1.6141]
EURCAD long 1.3576 [c 1.3641]