Archive for April, 2011

Sat April 30

30 April 2011 - 9:22 am UTC

EURUSD is behaving so far and continues to trade within the channel.
It’s extremely overextended and next week the pullback should begin.
Daily candle chart shows tweezer top.

NZDUSD is still topping but it’s choppy distribution is more prolonged
than I expected. Next week should be better.

NZDUSD short 0.8024 [closed 0.8049].

Fri April 29

29 April 2011 - 12:58 am UTC

Despite delays due to intervention, natural market forces can not be
postponed indefinitely and the very overdue US Dollar rally will occur.

NZDUSD short 0.8024 – still looks topped at last.

Yes it seems the intervention gave us the EURUSD channel posted
below. A leg down should commence from current levels.

Thurs April 28

27 April 2011 - 10:04 pm UTC

NZDUSD short 0.8024

When the recurring DOW/S&P500 buying support decreases, FX
signals will become more reliable.

AUDUSD long 1.0911 [closed 1.0920]

NZDUSD short 0.8015 (looks like we have a top this time) [closed 0.8017]

USDJPY long 81.657 [closed 81.679]

AUDJPY short 89.043 [closed 88.824]

‘COPPER has ignored the recent equity bounce. Daily and weekly
are not bullish’ ~ March 31, 2011. The weekly chart of the ultimate
leading indicator has been tracking sideways throughout 2011.
This is not bullish and indicative of what lies ahead.

USDJPY choppy basing that’s been occurring for months continues
and more upside ahead once DOW/S&P500 buying support is
overpowered by selling pressure.

 


EURUSD weekly chart showing current channel scenario. EURUSD
is now very overextended. Strong resistance is located around 1.50

EURJPY short 121.570

NZDUSD short 0.8036 [closed 0.8028]
USDJPY long 82.250 [closed 82.114]

XAGUSD (silver in USD) weekly chart shows multi year broadening
formation (aka megaphone) and subsequent break out. It’s now
extremely overbought and the reversal could be spectacular.

Wed April 27

27 April 2011 - 12:00 am UTC

EURUSD daily chart reverts to neutral. Scroll down for weekly rising
wedge scenario.

USDJPY definitely much more upside ahead…

USDJPY long 82.250

EURUSD and USD fluctuating continues.

EURJPY long 120.021 [closed 120.637]
USDJPY long 81.678 [closed 82.198]

USDJPY the choppy basing (ie bullish) that’s been happening for
some months continues and more upside looks probable.

EURJPY long 120.021

EURJPY gives bullish warning. Last price 119.98

USDJPY long 81.678

Back to USD strength again.

USDTRY short 1.5251 [closed 1.5216]

We revert to USD weakness again.

USDTRY short 1.5251

 


AUDUSD weekly chart megaphone wedge indicates fun times ahead.

Mon April 25

25 April 2011 - 12:21 pm UTC

USDTRY short 1.5251

USDTRY long 1.5224 [closed 1.5263]

In response to readers who asked when will the correction commence.
It’s already started in my opinion and Wile E. Coyote is currently
suspended in mid air. If my analysis is correct, the ongoing sideways
chop will be followed by more selling pressure.

I’ll stick my neck out once again and suggest that the market may
be anticipating a EURUSD / US Dollar event which will provide a
directional catalyst.

EURUSD daily is neutralish and overextended, weekly is bullish and
monthly remains bearish. Opposite for USD.

 

When DOW/S&P500 correction gathers momentum, I expect:

UP ~ USD, various USDXXX currencies, VIX Index

DOWN ~ EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GOLD/SILVER, Base metals like
COPPER etc, CRUDE OIL.

Sat April 23

23 April 2011 - 11:29 am UTC


It seems the intervention has resulted in a possible rising wedge for
the EURUSD weekly. This is a bearish pattern when confirmed.

Fri April 22

22 April 2011 - 1:56 pm UTC

‘COPPER has ignored the recent equity bounce. Daily and weekly
are not bullish’ ~ March 31, 2011

The weekly chart of the ultimate leading indicator has been tracking
sideways throughout this year. This is not bullish and suggestive of
what lies ahead.

GOLD and SILVER both of which have run further than expected, are
now extremely overextended and SILVER has gone vertical.
The eventual reversal should be just as spectacular.

EURUSD short 1.4618 [closed 1.4559]

Fri April 22

22 April 2011 - 12:31 pm UTC

EURUSD short 1.4618 [closed 1.4559]

Thurs April 21

21 April 2011 - 10:52 am UTC

Recurring USD strength and EURUSD/DOW/S&P500 weakness
returns yet again. I will get my dollar rally I promise.

EURUSD short 1.4618

EURSGD long 1.8020 [closed 1.8072]


DOW weekly chart broadening formation and choppy sideways price
action reveals an unstable market lacking in consensus and vulnerable
to sudden directional changes.

EURSGD long 1.8020

And looks like current upside wants to continue for now.

Clearly those very choppy mixed signals yesterday turned out to be
bullish after all. This recurring DOW/SP500 buying support and USD
suppression can not last forever though and when it is eventually
overpowered by selling pressure the result may be another waterfall
crash.

EURUSD short 1.4508 [closed 1.4535]

Wed April 20

20 April 2011 - 10:34 am UTC

EURUSD short 1.4508

DOW/SP500 buying support and USD sell pressure is fluctuating.

EURSGD long 1.7983 [closed 1.7976]

EURSGD short 1.7973 [closed 1.7983]

EURUSD long 1.4524 [closed 1.4512]

Significant DOW/SP500 buying support returns …

EURUSD short 1.4525 [closed 1.4519]

Have just returned to my charts after some time away and notice
I missed a short covering spike. The problem with burning all the
short sellers is that there won’t be any left to cover later on
(ie buy back their short trades after a drop) So when we do get
a sell off it may be more pronounced as there will be less buying
support from the shorters closing their trades.


DOW weekly updated broadening formation showing choppy sideways
price action over several months (ie distribution) It’s converging
towards an apex where a decisive move lies ahead.

EURUSD long 1.4318 [closed 1.4395]