Archive for March, 2011

Thurs March 31 (b)

31 March 2011 - 4:56 am UTC

DOW bearish warnings return – futures last price 12,301

USDCHF long 0.9149

USDCHF short 0.9181 [closed 0.9148]

NZDUSD short 0.7605 [closed 0.7586]

AUDNZD short 1.3572 [closed 1.3579]

I underestimated the extent of this rally. The aggressive buying and
bullish candles on DOW/S&P500 indicates that much of it may be
short covering.

COPPER has ignored the recent equity bounce. Daily and weekly
are not bullish.

Thurs March 31 (a)

31 March 2011 - 2:05 am UTC

S&P500 updated chart originally posted January 18, 2011.
This monthly chart show a series of broadening patterns, aka
megaphone wedges. The three broadening formations pictured
reveal an unstable market where buyers and sellers battle for
control. The first two megaphones make clear who were the
eventual victors.

Prepare for the next Black Swan which will be “unexpected and
could never have been predicted”

Wed March 30

30 March 2011 - 9:34 am UTC

EURUSD short 1.4069 [closed 1.4084]

EURUSD short 1.4069 ~ daily chart bearish warnings continue.

AUDNZD short 1.3572

USDCHF long 0.9216 [closed 0.9239]

USDCHF more basing on daily chart (bullish)

AUDCHF long 0.9486 [closed 0.9529]

EURUSD choppy daily chart still gives bearish warnings.

USDCHF long 0.9216
AUDCHF long 0.9486

DOW / S&P500 ~ previous short term bearish indicators were clearly
overpowered by the recurring buying support and further upside is
possible ? My updated monthly chart will show the grossly
overextended big picture.

AUDCAD short 1.0007 [closed 1.0034]

Tues March 29

29 March 2011 - 10:59 am UTC

Fukushima Prediction Markets
http://www.intrade.com

AUDUSD short 1.0223 [closed 1.0337]

Just got back to charts. DOW futures still bearish – 12,134 last price.

DOW futures looking bearish now – 12,144 last price.
Will be away from charts for several hours.

AUDCAD short 1.0007

GBPUSD long 1.6013 [closed 1.6012]

GBPUSD long 1.6024 [closed 1.6031]

AUDUSD long 1.0246 [closed 1.0268]

Global index daily and weekly charts are not bullish, longs please
be careful.

AUDCAD short 1.0037 [closed 1.0006]

Mon March 28

28 March 2011 - 1:15 pm UTC

AUDCAD short 1.0037

GBPUSD long 1.6019 [closed 1.6015]

AUDCAD short 1.0048 [closed 1.0029]

EURUSD choppy daily chart still gives bearish warnings but is
tracking sideways again.

EURUSD short 1.4043 [closed 1.4048]

AUDCAD short 1.0048

USDCHF short 0.9192 [closed 0.9189]

USDCHF long 0.9128 [closed 0.9204]
EURUSD short 1.4158 [closed 1.4061]

EURUSD weakness and USD strength continues.

USDCHF long 0.9128

EURUSD short 1.4158

Fri March 25

25 March 2011 - 4:38 pm UTC

EURUSD weakness and USD strength continues.

USDCHF long 0.9128

EURUSD short 1.4158

Thurs March 24

23 March 2011 - 9:47 pm UTC

EURUSD weakness and USD strength increases – regular readers
know the rest…

EURUSD short 1.4158

EURUSD weekly chart with updated rising wedge scenario.
Long term indicators continue to warn of USD strength and
EURUSD weakness.

Wed March 23

23 March 2011 - 3:44 pm UTC

US Dollar strength returns.

EURUSD short 1.4158

NZDUSD short 0.7389 [closed 1.7408]

Very choppy with mixed signals. When equity downtrend gets
established, signals should be clearer due to increased market
consensus.

AUDUSD long 1.0109 [closed 1.0101]

Buying support strengthens and short squeeze is possible.
Last DOW futures price 11,983

The buying support returns yet again …

EURUSD short 1.4173 [closed 1.4180]

DOW/S&P500 daily and weekly charts are not bullish – longs please
be careful. FTSE and DAX 8 hr charts show rising wedge. (bearish)

‘I’m sticking with my Feb 22 call that the DOW top on Feb 18 2011
signals the end of the rally. The very overdue Wile E. Coyote
correction has arrived and a substantial leg down has begun’

Tues March 22

22 March 2011 - 4:22 pm UTC

FTSE and DAX 8 hr chart shows rising wedge so downtrend should
resume.

NZDUSD short 0.7409 [closed 0.7416]

AUDUSD short 1.0109 [closed 1.0102]

Very low interest rates, recurring equity index buying support / USD
suppression and resultant delayed correction will only make things
worse later on.

AUDUSD short 1.0047 [closed 1.0069]

Mon March 21

21 March 2011 - 9:02 am UTC

AUDUSD short 1.0047

EURUSD short 1.4171 [closed 1.4191]

Recap of Feb 16 post :
Have been asked to give a concise summary of what I see ahead.
When DOW/S&P500 etc. overdue correction commences, I expect:
UP ~ US Dollar, various USDXXX currencies, VIX Index.
DOWN ~ EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GOLD/SILVER, Base metals like
COPPER etc, CRUDE OIL.

EURUSD short 1.4171

AUDUSD long 0.9979 [closed 1.0004]

AUDUSD long 0.9943 [closed 0.9961]