Archive for February, 2011

Mon Feb 28

28 February 2011 - 10:07 am UTC

A reminder that key global equity indexes remain very overextended
and as a result the overdue correction may be sudden.

USDCHF / GBPCHF / CADCHF are bullish.

GBPCHF long 1.5101

USDCHF long 0.9289

AUDUSD short 1.0130 [closed 1.0139]

Sun Feb 27

27 February 2011 - 8:47 pm UTC

Australian All Ordinaries index weekly chart shows rising wedge with
probable double top. A bearish picture.


30 year U.S. Treasury bond futures daily chart bullish signal confirmed.
Weekly and monthly charts are neutral.

Fri Feb 25

25 February 2011 - 2:00 am UTC

EURUSD long 1.3746 [closed 1.3750]

AUDJPY long 82.983 [closed 82.964]

USDCHF long 0.9308 [closed 0.9305]

EURUSD short 1.3744 [closed 1.3747]

AUDUSD long 1.0105 [closed 1.0143]

A reminder that USD strength should increase once the equity correction gathers momentum.

Just looked at a NETFLIX weekly chart and I see it’s gone parabolic, so a major retracement is expected.

EURNZD short 1.8411 [closed 1.8414]

EURSGD long 1.7599 [closed 1.7645]

I’m sticking to my Feb 22nd call that 12,391 was the top on Feb 18 2011 and marks the end of the rally.


S&P500 weekly chart with updated rising wedge.

Thurs Feb 24

24 February 2011 - 10:36 am UTC

EURSGD long 1.7599

AUDJPY long 82.611 [closed 82.458]

EURSGD long 1.7587 [closed 1.7593]

EURAUD short 1.3685 [closed 1.3687]

Wed Feb 23

23 February 2011 - 2:07 am UTC

GBPAUD long 1.6185 [closed 1.6164]

Will update rising wedges tomorrow.

‘12,400 should be the DOW top – let’s see if i’m right’

Weekly charts remain bullish ~ EURNZD / GBPAUD / EURAUD

USD choppy and sideways.

GBPAUD long 1.6185

AUDJPY long 82.979 [closed 82.932]

AUDUSD long 1.0023 [closed 1.0023]

GBPAUD long 1.6156 [closed 1.6163]

AUDUSD long 1.0020 [closed 1.0016]

EURNZD weekly chart confirms bullish signal.

GBPAUD long 1.6153 [closed 1.6137]

USDCZK long 17.953 [closed 17.941]

GBPAUD long 1.6153

USDCZK long 17.923 [closed 17.938]

GBPAUD weekly chart bullish warning continues.

Tues Feb 22

22 February 2011 - 11:38 am UTC

The overdue Wile E. Coyote equity correction gets even closer.

12,400 should be the DOW top – let’s see if i’m right.
Last price 12,271

USDCZK long 17.923

Key global equity indexes remain very overextended and as a result
the overdue correction may be sudden.

A reminder that S&P500 monthly chart volume has been declining
steadily since the March 2009 rally started. Declining volume during
an uptrend or downtrend can signal trend weakness.

USD buying support / EURUSD selling pressure returns. Thus we return
to the recurring pattern as the dollar continues to wind up for a rally.

Mon Feb 21

21 February 2011 - 3:20 pm UTC


Fri Feb 18

18 February 2011 - 11:48 am UTC

USDCZK long 17.932 [closed 17.908]

GBPAUD weekly chart gives bullish warning.
GBPJPY weekly chart gives bullish signal.

USD buy support returns…

USDCHF long 0.9501 [closed 0.9502]

AUDJPY weekly chart reveals what’s been happening since the crash
and the ‘recovery’. The smaller wedge that starts mid 2010 reveals a
weakening trend despite the QE intervention. This chart should not be
ignored in my view.

USDCHF short 0.9564 [closed 0.9498]

Thurs Feb 17

17 February 2011 - 10:24 am UTC

USD selling pressure continues for now.

USDCHF short 0.9564

USDPLN long 2.8864 [closed 2.8799]

GBPAUD long 1.6073 [closed 1.6069]

USDCHF short 0.9637 [closed 0.9588]

S&P500 monthly chart with updated rising wedge scenario.

USDCHF short 0.9637

Wed Feb 16

16 February 2011 - 12:09 am UTC

USDCHF short 0.9637

USDCHF long 0.9664 [closed 0.9628]
EURO buying support / USD selling pressure reappears yet again …

EURGBP: although daily and weekly trends are bullish to neutral –
the increasingly influential monthly chart gives bearish warning.
The monthly chart has more overall influence than smaller time
frames like daily and weekly.

Preferred USD proxies atm : USDCZK / USDDKK / USDCHF

Back to the usual DOLLAR STRENGTH … blah blah blah, you know
the rest …

USDCHF long 0.9664

USDCHF short 0.9663 [closed 0.9638]

USDCZK long 18.016 [closed 17.995]

Have been asked to give a concise summary of what I see ahead.
When DOW/S&P500 etc. overdue correction commences, I expect:

US Dollar and various USDXXX currencies