Archive for January, 2011

Mon Jan 21

31 January 2011 - 12:02 am UTC

EURSGD long 1.7556 [closed 1.7532]
USDDKK short 5.4687 [closed 5.4362]
USDDKK short 5.4687
Euro weakness and dollar strength will increase as DOW/S&P500 etc. weakens.
USDCZK long 17.795 [closed 17.783]
USDDKK short 5.4671 [closed 5.4711]
EURUSD long 1.3601 [closed 1.3599]
EURUSD short 1.3728 [closed 1.3609]

S&P 500 Financial Index updated weekly chart shows the weak
uptrend since early 2009.

Sun Jan 30

30 January 2011 - 8:45 pm UTC

Despite market intervention/QE – natural market forces can not be
stopped – only delayed.

When the market does reassert control – the reaction (the
overdue correction) may be even more extreme due to that delay.

And some may erroneously refer to this as a Black Swan since
it’s ‘unexpected’.

However they will be wrong because major market events can be
predicted by some analysts who study charts using technical

Sat Jan 29

29 January 2011 - 12:53 pm UTC

GOLD and SILVER daily chart has gone sideways while a right hand
shoulder develops on the possble head and shoulders pattern on the
weekly chart. Weekly indicators still warn of significant GOLD and
SILVER downside.

Fri Jan 28

28 January 2011 - 12:54 pm UTC

USD strength increases further and stocks decline.
The dollar rally I’ve warned about for some time gets closer.
Looks like the Euro leg down has started at last …
EURUSD short 1.3728
GOLD / SILVER downtrend strengthens and I continue to add to
XAGAUD short
Been away from computer and I now see that EURUSD 240 min chart has given me a short signal about an hour ago. Last price 1.3702

DAX weekly chart showing key resistance levels.

Thurs Jan 27

27 January 2011 - 11:28 am UTC

The equity rally since Aug 2010 has continued for a few months
longer than I expected – similar to what happened after I began my
warnings in early 2007 but the market decline didn’t start until mid

Despite market intervention/QE – natural market forces can not be
stopped – only delayed. When the market does reassert control –
the reaction (the overdue correction) may be even more extreme
due to that delay.

Warnings have been given by GOLD / SILVER and this week by

S&P500 bank sector index daily chart gives bearish signal.
EURUSD 240 min chart reverts to bearish mode as equities sell off.
EURUSD selling pressure returns…
EURUSD 240 min chart gives bearish warning and vice versa for USD.
Last price 1.3637

DOW very overextended daily chart shows price converging.

EURUSD daily chart shows price converging and contained within a
possible rising wedge.

Wed Jan 26

26 January 2011 - 12:19 am UTC

NZDUSD short 0.7684 [closed 0.7698]
The VIX index gives bullish warnings and has been oversold for
some time. Low VIX levels reveal that market sentiment is
complacent and not expecting a correction. From a contrarian
perspective this is a red flag and warns of a sell off.

EURCAD / EURSGD / EURUSD 240 min trends have gone bearish / neutral again.

EURUSD daily chart.
EURCAD and EURSGD daily and weekly charts still give bullish signal
but monthly charts remain bearish.

EURUSD short 1.3628 [closed 1.3661]
COPPER daily chart now gives bearish warning.
CRUDE OIL daily chart now gives bearish warning.
GOLD and SILVER have already given confirmed signal.
The equity correction is getting closer in my opinion.
EURUSD short 1.3628
NZDAUD long 0.7698 [closed 0.7700]

EURUSD weekly chart shows the battle between buyers and sellers.
The triangle and expanding wedge pattern suggests a big move soon
and I expect a break south.

Tues Jan 25

25 January 2011 - 10:28 am UTC

NZDAUD long 0.7698
EURUSD short 1.3627 [closed 1.3644]
EURUSD buying support returns again – it wants to rally more ?
An interesting chart for anyone not seen it yet:
EURUSD bearish signal strengthens further and we may have begun
the leg down at last … Last price 1.3593
EURUSD short 1.3627
EURUSD short 1.3619 [closed 1.3621]
EURUSD bearish signal gets better so went short 1.3619
Trade will not be monitored for several hours.
EURUSD 240 min gives further bearish warning. Last price 1.3631
EURUSD 240 min chart goes bearish yet again and vice versa for
USD. Due to EURUSD mixed signals and overextended key stock
indices, i’m avoiding all EURO currencies (eg EURCAD, EURSGD)
FTSE / DAX etc. daily chart bearish warnings continue.
“Key global indexes remain overextended and overbought which
means the trend reversal could be sudden”
EURSGD long 1.7487 [closed 1.7496]
EURUSD daily chart remains in bullish mode and weekly and monthly
time frames are neutral to bearish. Thus it’s still being pulled in
different directions – hence the choppy fluctuating trend direction
Gold and Silver downtrend continues. As mentioned previously,
more downside is expected.

Mon Jan 24

24 January 2011 - 8:55 am UTC

EURUSD daily chart is bullish again, so back to the rally…
EURSGD / EURCAD daily and weekly are still bullish.
EURUSD trend direction fluctuates once again.
Gold and Silver downtrend continues. This signal should not be
ignored in my opinion.
AUDEUR long 0.7284 [closed 0.7301]

FTSE weekly charts show updated rising wedge scenario.
EURUSD 240 min chart goes bearish and the usual USD strength
reappears. The equity correction and USD rally get closer…
AUDEUR long 0.7284
NZDAUD long 0.7682 [closed 0.7669]
NZDUSD long 0.7581 [closed 0.7587]
AUDEUR short 0.7307 [closed 0.7256]

Sun Jan 23

23 January 2011 - 5:45 pm UTC

Just found this graphic which will be useful to readers who are new to technical analysis. As noted previously, long term charts of key global indexes have been in the distribution phase for some time.
I have no connection with the site.

Fri Jan 21

21 January 2011 - 10:38 am UTC

AUDEUR short 0.7307
XAGAUD short 27.56 [closed 27.58]
AUDEUR long 0.7304 [closed 0.7309]
EURAUD long 1.3711 [closed 1.3714]
EURUSD buying support keeps coming back…
Last price 1.3543
GBPUSD short 1.5976 [closed 1.5922]