Archive for November, 2010

Tues Nov 30

30 November 2010 - 7:20 am UTC

AUDCAD long 0.9844 [closed 0.9854]
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AUDCAD long 0.9844
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GBPAUD long 1.6192 [closed 1.6191]
AUDCAD short 0.9792 [closed 0.9809]
*

DOW daily chart above shows probable head and shoulders with
initial target around 10,500
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GBPAUD long 1.6192
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DOW/S&P500 head and shoulders (bearish) pattern looks valid so
far. DOW futures last price 11,001
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AUDCAD short 0.9792
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GBPAUD long 1.6164 [closed 1.6149]
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GBPAUD short 1.6201 [closed 1.6154]
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GBPAUD short 1.6201
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GBPAUD long 1.6163 [closed 1.6164]

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Mon Nov 29

29 November 2010 - 9:45 am UTC

AUDCAD and AUDUSD daily charts are more bearish and much more
downside is expected.
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GBPAUD long 1.6163
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More chop in various currencies but EURUSD bearish signals and
USD bullish signals continue. COPPER daily chart is still bearish.

Very short term scalp trades are not posted.

Fri Nov 26

26 November 2010 - 10:58 am UTC

GBPAUD long 1.6191 [closed 1.6167]
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GBPAUD long 1.6191
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GBPAUD long 1.6183 [closed 1.6192]
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AUDJPY long 81.095 [closed 81.063]
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GBPAUD long 1.6191 [closed 1.6182]
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GBPAUD long 1.6191
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GBPAUD short 1.6225 [closed 1.6185]
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GBPAUD short 1.6225
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GBPAUD long 1.6159 [closed 1.6254]
GBPEUR long 1.1827 [closed 1.1848]
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DOW / SP500 / FTSE / DAX / ASX 200 extremely overextended daily
charts give further bearish signals and USD gives more bullish
warnings. COPPER daily chart is bearish which is a leading indicator.
DOW futures 11,119
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GBPEUR long 1.1827
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EURUSD breaches key support @ 1.33
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COPPER daily chart is now bearish.
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More chop and uncertainty but medium and long term I remain
bearish EURUSD and bullish USD.

GBPAUD long 1.6159
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AUDUSD long 0.9746 [closed 0.9743]
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AUDUSD long 0.9746
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GBPAUD long 1.6146 [closed 1.6152]
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GBPAUD long 1.6146

Thurs Nov 25

25 November 2010 - 9:34 am UTC

USDCHF daily and weekly are both bullish.
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GBPEUR long 1.1848 [closed 1.1819]
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GBPEUR long 1.1848
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DOW long 11,161 [closed 11,162]
AUDUSD long 0.9787 [closed 0.9811]
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AUDUSD long 0.9787
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DOW long 11,161
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GBPAUD long 1.6129 [closed 1.6115]
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USDJPY long 83.46 [closed 83.44]
GBPAUD long 1.6129
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DOW futures choppy intra day trend fluctuating and lacking direction. Last price 11,154
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More chop and more mixed signals.
USDJPY long 83.46
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DOW futures choppy intra day bullish warning. Last price 11,160
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The sideways chop returns.
GBPEUR long 1.1829 [closed 1.1817]
USDDKK long 5.5789 [closed 5.5951]
USDJPY long 83.38 [closed 83.44]

Wed Nov 24

24 November 2010 - 5:23 pm UTC

GBPEUR long 1.1829
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USDDKK long 5.5789
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GBPEUR long 1.1811 [closed 1.1808]
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USDJPY long 83.38
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EURUSD long 1.3396 [closed 1.3385]
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EURJPY short 114.71 [closed 111.43]
GBPEUR long 1.1734 [closed 1.1811]
*
AUDUSD daily and weekly chart shows probable head and shoulders
pattern forming. I remain confident that the top which was approx
1.02 – marks the end of its rally.
*
USD bullish daily chart signals continue.
EURUSD / AUDUSD / EURJPY etc. bearish daily chart signals continue.

Long term USD bullish warnings / EURUSD bearish warnings have
not changed.

DOW / SP500 / FTSE / DAX / ASX 200 bearish daily chart signals
continue.

EURJPY short 114.71
GBPEUR long 1.1734

Tues Nov 23

23 November 2010 - 7:37 pm UTC

Further USD strength and EURUSD / AUDUSD / DOW / SP500 etc.
weakness …
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GBPEUR long 1.1734
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Been away from my charts again, more update later.
EURJPY short 114.71

Mon Nov 22

22 November 2010 - 10:02 am UTC

The DOW/SP500 futures, EURUSD, AUDUSD spike earlier today
(before Wall St opened) has now been overwhelmed by selling
– confirming that daily charts are increasingly bearish. As
mentioned, this overextended rally has taken longer to finish
than I expected – but daily charts of various global indices are
much more bearish as of today. The new down leg that I’ve
been expecting should start this week. Let’s see if i’m right.
DOW futures 11,095
*
Increased bearish signals for DOW/SP500 futures daily charts. It
seems the suggested rally for today has weakened already.
Dow futures 11,181
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My choppy EURJPY short has increased in strength – warning of
further USD strength and EURUSD / DOW/SP500 weakness.
Because monthly indicators continue to warn of EURUSD weakness
I know that eventually EURUSD will turn more bearish. And vice
versa for USD of course.
*
EURJPY short 114.71
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EURUSD long 1.3753 [closed 1.3752]
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GBPUSD long 1.5997 [closed 1.6015]
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GBPUSD long 1.5997

Sun Nov 21

21 November 2010 - 2:54 pm UTC

USDJPY
Daily chart still bullish.
Weekly is bullish.
Monthly is bearish.

Sat Nov 20

20 November 2010 - 9:54 am UTC

EURUSD recurring buying support detected again and USD selling
pressure detected again. This recurring USD weakness is bullish for
stocks and vice versa. However, long term USD bullish warnings
have not changed.

Despite global index daily charts being extremely overextended,
more rally is possible.

Unfortunately similar to the overbought conditions first noted in
early 2007 – this serious over extension from March 2009 is setting
us up for another waterfall crash similar to 2008.

But it may be worse than the 2008 crash since markets are now
dangerously very over stretched. When this choppy and unstable
uptrend does end – extreme caution will be warranted in my
opinion.

My earlier warnings commenced January 2007 and continued during
2007/2008. I see a pattern repeating itself here.

The serious overextension this year is very concerning and will end
in tears. Market intervention and suppression of natural market
forces only delays the inevitable reversion to the long term mean
that must occur. Nothing can stop it and the longer it’s delayed
the more unstable the market becomes and the worse the reaction
will be when natural market forces reassert control.

The major correction in 2007/2008 was predicted by some market
analysts including myself. It was not a ‘Black Swan’ event that
suddenly appeared out of nowhere. The charts made it very clear
back then what was ahead and they are doing so again. My long
term charts warn of another ‘ black swan market crash that
nobody could have predicted ! ‘

I’ll be looking for bearish USD trades on Monday. Due to choppy
mixed signals and lack of market consensus, my trades can be
very short term.

Fri Nov 19

19 November 2010 - 9:44 am UTC

GBPUSD short 1.6001
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GBPAUD long 1.6292 [closed 1.6278]
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DOW futures bearish warnings return: 11,130
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GBPAUD long 1.6292
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GBPAUD long 1.6261 [closed 1.6289]
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EURUSD long 1.3670 [closed 1.3705]
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EURUSD long 1.3670 – Euro buying pressure and USD selling
pressure returns yet again…

NZDUSD short 0.7753 [closed 0.7779]
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GBPAUD long 1.6217 [closed 1.6246]
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EURUSD weekly chart above shows key area of support which
eventually will be breached according to my indicators.
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NZDUSD short 0.7753
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Despite the DOW/SP500 spike yesterday, bearish warnings have
not changed and USD bullish warnings have not changed. As
mentioned, EURUSD weakness and USD strength will fluctuate and
continue to be choppy until global indices resume their downtrend.
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GBPAUD long 1.6217
GBPUSD short 1.6024 [closed 1.6028]
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GBPUSD short 1.6024
USDCHF long 0.9960 [closed 0.9961]
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USDCHF daily chart is choppy but remains bullish.
USDCHF long 0.9960
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FX market is tracking sideways again.
AUDUSD long 0.9881 [closed 0.9884]