Archive for May, 2010

Sun May 30

30 May 2010 - 6:21 pm UTC


DOW daily chart shows another broadening top forming from last weeks action. Not confirmed yet though.

Broadening tops – also known as Megaphone tops due to their shape – are very bearish chart patterns.

DOW weekly chart shows the much larger broadening top formation referenced earlier. Target remains in the 8,300-8,150 area (green lines)

The overextended rally from March 2009 had become increasingly unstable and the explosive move a few weeks back was the result. Unfortunately this instability and overextension also applies to larger time frames – hence my bearish views for some time now.

Long term charts of key equity indexes continue to give bearish warnings and the March 2009 lows will be breached according to my analysis.

As stated before, support around 10,000 will be breached and the target for this down leg: 8,300-8,150 unfortunately won’t hold either.

COPPER/CRUDE OIL/AUDUSD daily charts remain bearish and weekly charts remain bearish to neutral.

USD bullish warnings since 2009 on weekly and monthly charts have not changed so further USD strength and thus EURUSD, AUDUSD, COPPER weakness is expected.

It could be a multi year USD rally as its monthly indicators remain bullish and the opposite for EURUSD monthly of course.

In other words, the EURUSD long term chart remains extremely bearish.

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Fri May 28

29 May 2010 - 2:32 am UTC

Yes it looks finished.
DOW futures 10,135

Fri May 28

28 May 2010 - 9:37 pm UTC

The global corrective rally is showing weakness and the main downtrend is exerting its influence. The rally may be ending. DOW futures 10,222

Fri May 28

28 May 2010 - 1:30 pm UTC


EURUSD monthly chart showing the prominent very bearish triangle pattern that has been obvious for some time now. The lines below show potential levels of buyer support but the long term monthly trend remains bearish.

Thurs May 27

28 May 2010 - 12:57 am UTC

The AUDUSD,EURUSD,COPPER,CRUDE,DOW/SP500 ongoing buying support detected for a while now – has resulted in a corrective rally from previously oversold levels. Weekly and monthly charts remain bearish of course.

Thurs May 27

27 May 2010 - 3:39 pm UTC

AUDUSD,EURUSD,COPPER,CRUDE,DOW/SP500 continue to get buying support even though larger time frame charts remain bearish.

Sat May 22

23 May 2010 - 11:47 pm UTC


On May 4th on my blog, I suggested the March 2009 bear market rally had ended.

DOW daily chart shows the ongoing technical damage from it’s broadening top (a very bearish pattern)

Importantly, the broadening top on the DOW weekly chart is nearing completion and I expect it to behave similar to the one on the daily chart. Since this broadening top is based on a weekly chart, it is more serious and will do more damage than the smaller one we had recently.

As mentioned before, the overextended rally from March 2009 had become increasingly unstable and the explosive move on the daily chart was the result. Unfortunately this instability and overextension also applies to larger time frames – hence my bearish views for some time now.

Global equity charts now indicate the major downtrend that commenced in early 2008 can now resume.

As stated earlier, key support around 10,000 will be breached and the target for this down leg around 8,150 will not hold either.

Long term charts of key equity indexes continue to give bearish warnings and the March 2009 lows will be breached according to my analysis. This week I will post a DOW monthly chart that I’ve been sitting on for years. Unfortunately it is extremely bearish.

COPPER/CRUDE OIL/AUDUSD daily charts remain bearish and weekly charts are bearish to neutral.

USD bullish warnings since 2009 on weekly and monthly charts have not changed so further USD strength and thus Euro and Aussie weakness is expected.

Fri May 21

21 May 2010 - 5:08 pm UTC

XAUUSD and XAUEUR daily chart bearish signal continues.

Trends I like:
EURSGD
EURAUD
EURUSD

Thurs May 20

21 May 2010 - 2:37 am UTC

DOW/SP500 downtrend on daily chart continues.

For several days I have been warning of EURUSD buying support as detected by my indicators, and this has been confirmed by the recent break out.

Thurs May 20

20 May 2010 - 7:03 pm UTC

Have posted a weekly chart of the USD Index. It’s a bullish pattern and is the reverse of the EURUSD weekly chart. Since mid 2009 I have warned of an impending USD rally and it should be a multi year uptrend according to my indicators.  So the EURUSD outlook remains very bearish.