Stock Market + FX Analysis

Fri Jan 27

Grand Supercycle — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 03:45:30 +0000

SP500 daily rising wedge (ie bearish) looks valid. Also see Wile E. Coyote
chart posted Jan 20. Bears back in control as overextended SP500 breaks
down further.

SP500 daily chart rising wedge looking probable atm which supports bearish
overextension.

EURJPY AUDJPY GBPJPY CHFJPY downtrend continues and further downside
expected.

SP500 daily shows possible rising wedge.

USDX daily chart downtrend continues for now.

SP500 overextended daily chart dominance continues.

GBPJPY / AUDJPY leg down continues.

AUDEUR short 0.8083
EURSEK long 8.9012
CHFJPY short 83.688 [83.660]
AUDUSD short 1.0652 [c 1.0615]
GBPJPY short 121.651

Thurs Jan 26

Grand Supercycle — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 14:59:18 +0000

SP500 selling strength boosts USDX as usual.

SP500 overextended chart regains dominance over other markets again
- after short squeeze yesterday. Conflicted market continues.

Retracement needed after FED induced melt up.

AUDUSD short 1.0652
GBPJPY short 121.651

Wed Jan 25

Grand Supercycle — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 13:55:41 +0000

EURUSD daily chart reverts to bullish chop and SP500 etc remain
overextended.

SUBSTANTIAL SHORT COVERING TODAY.

As mentioned previously, ongoing USD suppression just ensures the next
equity crash will be worse.

Gold / Silver / SP500 daily charts continue to break down and further
downside expected. Potential for SP500 waterfall sell off continues.

USDJPY protracted basing further morphs into uptrend on daily chart.

USDJPY short 77.881
GBPAUD long 1.4875 [c 1.4883]
XAUUSD short 1668.22 [c 1679.50]

Tues Jan 24

Grand Supercycle — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 04:38:51 +0000

GBPJPY long 120.331 [c 121.120]
XAUUSD short 1668.22
EURAUD long 1.2391 [c 1.2418]
GBPUSD short 1.5553 [c 1.5560]
XAUUSD short 1676.81 [c 1677.09]
XAUUSD short 1676.70 [c 1676.99]

USDJPY protracted choppy basing continues.

Overdue Gold / Silver / SP500 leg down commences.
Looks like SP500 etc topped yesterday.

SP500 / DOW / NASDAQ daily chart overextension warning strengthens and
potential for a waterfall sell off increases.

Mon Jan 23

Grand Supercycle — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 16:00:14 +0000

SP500 daily remains very overextended and still wants to sell off.

EURUSD reverts to falling wedge scenario (bullish) which is in conflict with
very overextended SP500 / DOW.
EURUSD chart falling wedge posted below on Jan 18.

EURCAD / EURAUD / EURNZD – bullish warning on daily chart returns.

NZDUSD short 0.8016 [c 0.8056]

Fri Jan 20

Grand Supercycle — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 08:21:32 +0000

SP500 weekly chart shows Wile E. Coyote scenario with megaphone
pattern and possible diamond formation.

Bearish Gold and Silver from yesterday still suggests bearish SP500.

SP500 etc. daily charts extremely overextended and want to roll over.

NZDUSD short 0.8016
AUDEUR short 0.8101 [c 0.8037]

Thurs Jan 19

Grand Supercycle — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 16:10:40 +0000

FTSE bearish monthly chart as of Jan 18 2012. Highlighted area shows
possible head and shoulders pattern. Position of arrow is approximate only.

DOW weekly updated megaphone pattern with possible diamond
formation.

Severely overextended SP500 still leads the pack and it really wants
to rollover.

Overextended SP500 still leads the pack and other markets follow.

All that very protracted basing results in USDJPY daily now choppy bullish.
Larger time frames not bullish.

USDX daily chart remains bearish.
Weekly is neutral / bullish.
Monthly is bullish.

Out of sync trends such as USDX ,EURUSD, SP500 etc are caused by lack of
market consensus and can produce choppy volatile price action.

GBPAUD daily chart gives bullish warning.
EURAUD uptrend on daily chart continues and further upside expected.

AUDEUR short 0.8101

Wed Jan 18

Grand Supercycle — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 05:41:56 +0000

EURUSD weekly chart shows price converging towards triangle apex.

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EURAUD daily chart uptrend commences.

EURAUD daily chart gives bullish warning.

It boils down to this ~ overextended SP500 etc daily charts are conflicting with
EURUSD daily chart which gives bullish warning. Hence numerous mixed signals.

Once again Euro stocks sell off causing USDX bullish reversal – again revealing
a conflicted unstable market.

Despite SP500 overextension – USDX recurring selling resumes once again.
This supports stocks.

EURAUD long 1.2306 [c 1.2358]
USDCAD long 1.0149 [c 1.0131]

Tues Jan 17

Grand Supercycle — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 07:16:11 +0000

Reminder that SP500 monthly chart continues to give bearish warnings
and USDX monthly chart continues to give bullish warnings. This big
picture outlook will not change.

SP500 / DOW is leading other markets and serious OVEREXTENSION
is a warning for longs. So despite conflicting market signals – stock sell
off still expected.

Equity sellers return once again.

The very overextended SP500 chart is more influential today.

Conflicting EURUSD/USDX/equities direction agains warns of an unstable market.

Market dislocation returns and European equity sellers cause USDX strength again.

USDX daily chart begins downtrend however USDX monthly chart will remain
bullish – continuing to warn of eventual major USDX rally.

Vacillating market consensus continues and USDX daily chart gives bearish
warning. Further USDX weakness and equity / EURUSD strength expected.

More USDX weakness and stock strength expected.

EURUSD bullish signal continues.

USDCAD long 1.0149
USDPLN short 3.4347 [c 3.4204]

Mon Jan 16

Grand Supercycle — Sun, 15 Jan 2012 18:01:56 +0000

DOW daily chart as of Jan 14 shows updated megaphone pattern with
possible diamond formation. Price action is converging towards apex
from where I’m currently expecting it to break out downwards.
However EURUSD mixed signals remains an issue…

Despite very overextended SP500 daily chart, EURUSD choppy bullish
warning returns.

USDCAD short 1.0195 cancel
USDCAD long 1.0211 [c 1.0200]
USDCAD short 1.0214 [c 1.0202]
EURGBP short 0.8342 [ c 0.8255]